US Briefing - Thursday 06.08
Headlines
- Pres Trump: Prefers Deal With Iran, Warns Military Action An Option
- Iran: Deal With Oman On Strait Of Hormuz Is In Final Stages
- Warsh Ready To Raise Rates If Inflation Runs Hot
- Fed’s Cook: Ready To Raise Rates If Inflation Doesn’t Cool
- Fed's Daly: Central Bank Was Right To Hold Rates Steady At July Meeting
- German June Factory Orders Jump More Than Economists Predict
- UK Construction Downturn Eases As Demand Resurfaces, PMI Shows
- Ukraine Attacks Russia’s Yaroslavl Oil Refinery For 2nd Night In A Row
- Saudis Cut Main Oil Price To Asia Amid Talk Of Hormuz Deal
- Congo Bans Exports Of Copper, Cobalt Concentrates, Official Order Says
- Alphabet Taps Bond Market With Sweeping 10-Part Offering
- SpaceX Insider Lockup Expires, Freeing $101 Billion In Stock
- Sandisk Revenue Soars On AI Data Storage Demand
- Western Digital Profit Surges As Revenue Grows
- UK CMA Approves Paramount's $110B Purchase Of Warner Bros
- eBay Gives Solid Outlook, Says It Paid More To Acquire Depop
- Siemens Disappoints Investors With Muted Outlook Raise
- Rheinmetall Cuts Outlook After Losing Out On Naval Contract
- Softbank Books Lower Q1 Profit, Gain On Intel Stake
- Nintendo Tops Estimates With Strong Games And Tariff Refunds
- DeepSeek Signals ‘Significant’ Price Hikes Amid AI Model Demand Surge
Commentary
US Non-Farm Payrolls Bank Economist Estimates
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US-Japan Action Undercuts G7's Historic FX Role
Last week's joint US-Japan intervention to support the yen lacked full G7 firepower — an absence as telling as the operation itself. A coordinated global show of force was replaced by a transactional bilateral deal, weakening the effort and further dimming hopes of any "grand bargain" on exchange rates.
Reams of analysis have been written on the timing and rationale of the joint action to buy yen. Both US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his Japanese counterpart Satsuki Katayama have spoken publicly about the move and its various nuances and intentions.
Oil Traders Double Down On Iran Deal Bet As Odds Worsen: Bousso
Global crude prices have fallen back towards $80 a barrel on expectations that a U.S.-Iran deal will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, echoing the market response before the largely failed mid-June ceasefire. But the global energy market is now far more precarious, making traders' optimism even less justified.
Brent crude oil has tumbled from its recent high of roughly $100 a barrel on July 23 to around $80 after U.S., Iranian and Gulf officials indicated they were closing in on a new arrangement that could restore at least partial transit through Hormuz. The critical waterway carried around a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas before the war.
Hedge Fund Leverage Is Worse Than You Think
A near miss can be more dangerous than a crash when it emboldens risk takers. Last week’s humbling of artificial intelligence-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness amid the selloff in US and South Korean stocks looks like such a moment. Investors still have a huge amount of borrowed money backing their bets on the technology boom, and many have spent recent days buying the dip. And, right now, Wall Street’s traditional yardstick for assessing how much leverage is behind stocks may be creating a false sense of security.
Files & Links
DATA
- US Challenger Job Cuts (Y/Y) July: -46.1% (prev -4.5%)
- Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI July: 44.3(prev 42.8)
- Eurozone Retail Sales (M/M) June: -0.3% (est 0.1%; prev 0.2%; prev R 0.4%)
- ECB Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2026 - Full Report
- Germany Factory Orders (M/M): 3.1% (est 0.5%; prev 1.9%; prev R 0.3%)
- Germany HCOB Construction PMI July: 42.1 (prev 44.8)
- France HCOB Construction PMI July: 41.5 (prev 38.2)
- France Wages (Q/Q) Q2 P: 0.7% (prior 0.7%)
- Sweden CPI (Y/Y) Jul P: 0.2% (est 0.1%; prev 0.7%)
- Switzerland Unemployment Rate SA July: 3.1% (est 3.1%; prev 3.1%)
- Italy HCOB Construction PMI July: 49.1 (prev 45.4)
- Italy Industrial Production (M/M) Jun: -1.0% (est 0.3%; prev -0.3%)
- Spain Industrial Production (M/M) June: -0.7% (est -0.5%; prev 1.2%; prev R 1.0%)
- UK S&P Global Construction PMI Jul: 44.7 (est 40.0; prev 38.4)
- BoJ Yen Index Aug-06: 73.52 (prev 73.62)
IRAN WAR
- Pres Trump: Prefers Deal With Iran, Warns Military Action An Option – AA
- Iran: Deal With Oman On Strait Of Hormuz Is In Final Stages – BBC
- Tanker Reports Hearing 2 Explosions Off Oman’s Coast In Hormuz – AA
GOVERNMENT/CENTRAL BANK NEWS
- Fed’s Cook: Ready To Raise Rates If Inflation Doesn’t Cool – BBG
- Fed's Daly: Central Bank Was Right To Hold Rates Steady At July Meeting – RTRS
- Pres Trump Tells Donors, ‘We Need To Elect JD,’ As VP Weigh His Future – WAPO
- Nagel Bid For Lagarde’s Job At ECB Advances With Talks In Berlin - BBG
- German June Factory Orders Jump More Than Economists Predict - BBG
- UK Construction Downturn Eases As Demand Resurfaces, PMI Shows – BBG
- Ukrainian Plane Next To Drone At Leipzig Airport Carried Ammunition - SZ
- Korea Posts Record High Current Account Surplus Again In June – Korea Times
- N.Korea Fires Missile After Warning Of New Military Options - BBG
- Australia Post Surprise Trade Surplus; Commodity Exports Gain – BBG
FIXED INCOME NEWS
- Short Dated Treasury Yields Edge Higher; Traders Focus On Rates – CNBC
- Eurozone Yields Rise As Iran Optimism Wears Thin – Market Screener
- German Yields Hold Steady At 3W Lows As Easing Oil Cools ECB Bets – Investing
- Japan 30Y JGB Auction Sees “Slightly Weak” Results; Wider Tail Weighs – BigGo
FX NEWS
- BBH: US Dollar Relief Rallies Seen Shallow – FXStreet
- EUR/USD Trades Firmly Amid Growing Labor Market Concerns – FXStreet
- GBP/USD Edges Down As Investors Prepare For NFP Data – FXStreet
- Yen Struggles To Hold Intervention Gains, Drifts Towards 158 – FXStreet
- Rabobank: Japan’s Policy Shifts Weigh On Yen Vs USD – FXStreet
- Further Yen Appreciation Likely To Require BoJ Rate Hikes – Fitch
- AUD/JPY Drifts Lower, Stalling Recent Recovery From Multi Month Lows – FXStreet
CRYPTO NEWS
ENERGY/COMMODITY NEWS
- Oil Prices Hold As Iran-Oman Near Strait Of Hormuz Deal – Upstream
- Ukraine Attacks Russia’s Yaroslavl Oil Refinery For 2nd Night In A Row – KI
- Saudis Cut Main Oil Price To Asia Amid Talk Of Hormuz Deal - BBG
- Congo Bans Exports Of Copper, Cobalt Concentrates, Official Order Says – RTRS
- Ukraine: Russia Attacked Ship Carrying Wheat In Black Sea – Ynet
- Gold Holds Gains, Buoyed By Lower US Yields – FXStreet
EARNINGS
- Sandisk Revenue Soars On AI Data Storage Demand – WSJ
- Western Digital Profit Surges As Revenue Grows – WSJ
- ConocoPhillips CEO Lance To Retire, Finance Chief To Take Helm – RTRS
- McKesson Raises Annual Profit Forecast On Strong Growth In Drug Business - RTRS
- Constellation Energy Gains After Lifting 2026 Guidance – Investing
- Doordash Issues Strong Outlook, Warns Of Heightened Spending - BBG
- Allstate Earnings Beat By $3.72, Revenue Topped Estimates – Investing
- Honeywell Aerospace Cuts 2026 Forecast On Supply-Chain Woes – RTRS
- Warner Bros. Sales Fall On Loss Of NBA, Weak Film Slate – BBG
- MetLife’s Earnings Beat Wall Street Expectations - BBG
- Realty Income Q2 2026 Revenue Beats As Stock Rises – Investing
- Occidental Petroleum Q2 Adj Earnings, Revenue Rise – MarketScreener
- eBay Gives Solid Outlook, Says It Paid More To Acquire Depop – BBG
- Becton Dickinson Beats Q3 Estimates, Raising Guidance Midpoint – Investing
- Block Slides Despite Record 27% Margins, Accelerating Growth – Investing
- Keurig Dr Pepper Maintains Annual Forecasts After Q2 Results Beat - RTRS
- Kenvue Stock Falls After Earnings Miss Analyst Estimates – Investing
- Expedia Boosts Its Full-Year Sales Outlook On Strong Bookings - BBG
- Fiserv Stock Tumbles After Cutting 2026 Guidance – Investing
- US Food Holdings Reports Adj Revenue, EPS Miss, Raises Outlook - BW
- Mercado Libre Drops As E-Commerce Giant Signals More Spending - BBG
- Siemens Disappoints Investors With Muted Outlook Raise - BBG
- Rheinmetall Cuts Outlook After Losing Out On Naval Contract - BBG
- Commerzbank Posts Record Profit, €3.2B Capital Return On Track - Investing
- Persil-Maker Henkel Raises Organic Growth Guidance For 2026 – RTE
- Swiss Re Profit Beats Estimates As Re-Insurer Boosts Cost Cuts - BBG
- Adecco Beats Estimates On Organic Growth Despite Margin Pressure - Investing
- Diageo Boss Launches Aggressive Cost-Cutting To Revive Drinks Group – FT
- Admiral Group Beats Margin Expectations, Shares Jump – Investing
- Softbank Books Lower Q1 Profit, Gain On Intel Stake – RTRS
- Nintendo’s Quarterly Profit Surges – WSJ
EQUITY NEWS
- OpenAI Accounted For Likely 70% Of Microsoft AI Sales – Business Times
- Meta Becomes Latest Firm To Say Its AI Hacked Another Company – BBC
- OpenAI AI Agents Breached Its Own Systems Before Hugging Face – Axios
- OpenAI Asks Judge To Toss Apple Suit Alleging Trade Secret Theft - BBG
- Paramount’s Stalled $110B Warner Deal Wins UK Nod – BBG
- SoftBank Secures $10B Margin Loan Backed By OpenAI Stake – BBG
- China Launches Cybersecurity Review Into Palo Alto Networks - BBG
- DeepSeek Signals ‘Significant’ Price Hikes Amid AI Model Demand Surge - SCMP
- China's CMRG Tells Some Steel Mills To Halt Talks With Rio Tinto – RTRS