Friday’s U.S. payroll report is being touted as the most important figure of the year, as it is expected to shape the narrative—and possibly the size—of the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate-cutting cycle.

A poll of economists predicted a headline payroll figure of 165,000 jobs added in August, up from the surprisingly weak 114,000 in July (when analysts had expected 175,000). Experts attributed the lower-than-forecast July figure to weather-related disruptions, noting that the reporting period coincided with Hurricane Beryl, which affected various industries across Texas and neighbouring states.

Deutsche Bank experts pointed out that “although last month’s jobs report was underwhelming, much of the data since then has looked more positive.” They cited falling weekly initial jobless claims, stronger retail sales, and upward revisions to Q2 GDP growth to an annualized pace of 3.0%, which they described as “inconsistent with a recession.”

However, August's ADP print disappointed, showing only 99,000 jobs added versus the 145,000 forecast—the lowest level since January 2021. July’s ADP number was also revised to 111,000 from an initial 122,000. (LiveSquawk – Continue Reading)

OPEC+ is like a teabag – it only works in hot water. The late Robert Mabro, one of the savviest oil-market observers, liked to say the cartel only got the job done when it was under prolonged financial pain. To judge by its latest actions, OPEC+ has yet to realize it’s inside a warming kettle.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil-producing nations have now agreed to delay by two months a planned output hike that was scheduled to start in October. The delay came after Brent, the petroleum benchmark, fell to one-year low below $75 a barrel. (Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, according to JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli.

“We think there’s a good case that they should get back to neutral as soon as possible,” the firm’s chief U.S. economist told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday, adding that the high point of the central bank’s neutral policy setting is around 4%, or 150 basis points below where it is currently. “We think there’s a good case for hurrying up in their pace of rate cuts.”

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 39% chance that the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate will be lowered by a half percentage point to 4.75% to 5% from the current 5.25% to 5.50%. A quarter-percentage-point reduction to a range of 5% to 5.25% shows odds of about 61%. (CNBC – Continue Reading)