Developments in the Middle East will remain in the background. President Donald Trump postponed planned strikes on Iran after saying the outline of a possible agreement had been reached. The immediate question is whether talks can deliver a lasting ceasefire and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ has also approved a modest September production increase before pausing further rises, leaving oil sensitive to any change in the diplomatic outlook.
Friday’s US labour report is the week’s main event. The Fed left rates unchanged in July, but three policymakers voted for an immediate hike, leaving the September meeting open. A solid employment report would allow the debate to remain focused on inflation, while a marked deterioration could test the view that the labour market remains stable.
Before then, the ISM surveys will provide an early reading on third-quarter activity. Japan’s wage figures will matter for the timing of the BoJ’s next move, while German factory orders and Canada’s labour report complete a relatively light G7 calendar.
All times are GMT
Monday 3 August
14:00 – US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul) Consensus: 54.0 (Prev: 53.3)
The index should remain comfortably above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction. Citi expects a modest improvement, helped by “increases in both new orders and production components”. AI-related investment continues to support industry, although higher borrowing costs and fading fiscal incentives could curb demand. The employment index may remain below 50, while prices paid will show whether higher energy and transport costs are working through the manufacturing sector.
Speakers: --
Tuesday 4 August
23:30 – Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jun) Consensus: 3.4% y/y (Prev: 3.3%)
Wage growth should strengthen further, with Barclays looking for firmer readings in “both overall cash earnings and scheduled pay”. Real earnings are forecast to rise by 1.4% y/y, matching May’s rate. Another solid report would support the BoJ’s argument that wage and price growth are becoming more firmly established. It would also keep another rate increase in play, despite policymakers choosing to hold in July.
Speakers: --
Wednesday 5 August
14:00 – US ISM Services Index (Jul) Consensus: 54.3 (Prev: 54.0)
Little movement is expected in the services index. Deutsche Bank sees a reading of 54.3, “broadly unchanged” from June and consistent with another month of reasonable growth. New orders and business activity should remain positive, although employment may soften. The prices-paid component is likely to carry more weight following the rise in energy costs, particularly if it suggests that inflation pressures are spreading beyond goods and transport.
Factory orders are forecast to rise for a second month, although the pace should slow from May. Nomura is slightly stronger than consensus at 1.0%, arguing that some firms may be “getting ahead of potential future supply chain disruptions”. German producers may also have gained business from Asian competitors more exposed to disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Another increase would add to evidence of a gradual industrial recovery.
Speakers: Fed's Musalem
Friday 7 August
12:30 – US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) Consensus: 88k (Prev: 57k)
Experts expect payroll growth to recover from June’s weak reading but remain modest by recent standards. Deutsche Bank forecasts 65k jobs, unchanged unemployment of 4.2% and wage growth of 3.5% y/y. It warns that the risks are “tilted toward the rate rounding up to 4.3%” if participation rebounds. Weak payroll growth accompanied by higher unemployment would challenge the Fed’s confidence in a stable labour market and complicate the September decision.
Hiring is forecast to remain positive after the labour market improved in May and June, partly helped by better prospects in the resources sector. National Bank of Canada expects the recovery to have “continued in July”, although its 10k forecast is below consensus. With participation expected to remain at 65.0%, unemployment should hold at 6.5%. A softer outcome would underline the Bank of Canada’s view that spare capacity remains in the labour market.
Speakers: Fed's Barkin
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data_array.logs = data.logs;
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postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
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function join_publisher_channel(data) {
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postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server);
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postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
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socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
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function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
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function application_refresh_stop(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); }
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function set_static_session_info(data) {
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session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
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function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
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session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
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Developments in the Middle East will remain in the background. President Donald Trump postponed planned strikes on Iran after saying the outline of a possible agreement had been reached. The immediate question is whether talks can deliver a lasting ceasefire and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ has also approved a modest September production increase before pausing further rises, leaving oil sensitive to any change in the diplomatic outlook.
Friday’s US labour report is the week’s main event. The Fed left rates unchanged in July, but three policymakers voted for an immediate hike, leaving the September meeting open. A solid employment report would allow the debate to remain focused on inflation, while a marked deterioration could test the view that the labour market remains stable.
Before then, the ISM surveys will provide an early reading on third-quarter activity. Japan’s wage figures will matter for the timing of the BoJ’s next move, while German factory orders and Canada’s labour report complete a relatively light G7 calendar.
All times are GMT
14:00 – US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul)
Consensus: 54.0 (Prev: 53.3)
The index should remain comfortably above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction. Citi expects a modest improvement, helped by “increases in both new orders and production components”. AI-related investment continues to support industry, although higher borrowing costs and fading fiscal incentives could curb demand. The employment index may remain below 50, while prices paid will show whether higher energy and transport costs are working through the manufacturing sector.
Speakers: --
23:30 – Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jun)
Consensus: 3.4% y/y (Prev: 3.3%)
Wage growth should strengthen further, with Barclays looking for firmer readings in “both overall cash earnings and scheduled pay”. Real earnings are forecast to rise by 1.4% y/y, matching May’s rate. Another solid report would support the BoJ’s argument that wage and price growth are becoming more firmly established. It would also keep another rate increase in play, despite policymakers choosing to hold in July.
Speakers: --
14:00 – US ISM Services Index (Jul)
Consensus: 54.3 (Prev: 54.0)
Little movement is expected in the services index. Deutsche Bank sees a reading of 54.3, “broadly unchanged” from June and consistent with another month of reasonable growth. New orders and business activity should remain positive, although employment may soften. The prices-paid component is likely to carry more weight following the rise in energy costs, particularly if it suggests that inflation pressures are spreading beyond goods and transport.
Speakers: Fed's Cook
06:00 – Germany Factory Orders (Jun)
Consensus: 0.8% m/m (Prev: 1.9%)
Factory orders are forecast to rise for a second month, although the pace should slow from May. Nomura is slightly stronger than consensus at 1.0%, arguing that some firms may be “getting ahead of potential future supply chain disruptions”. German producers may also have gained business from Asian competitors more exposed to disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Another increase would add to evidence of a gradual industrial recovery.
Speakers: Fed's Musalem
12:30 – US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
Consensus: 88k (Prev: 57k)
Experts expect payroll growth to recover from June’s weak reading but remain modest by recent standards. Deutsche Bank forecasts 65k jobs, unchanged unemployment of 4.2% and wage growth of 3.5% y/y. It warns that the risks are “tilted toward the rate rounding up to 4.3%” if participation rebounds. Weak payroll growth accompanied by higher unemployment would challenge the Fed’s confidence in a stable labour market and complicate the September decision.
12:30 – Canada Employment Change (Jul)
Consensus: 15.0k (Prev: 18.2k)
Hiring is forecast to remain positive after the labour market improved in May and June, partly helped by better prospects in the resources sector. National Bank of Canada expects the recovery to have “continued in July”, although its 10k forecast is below consensus. With participation expected to remain at 65.0%, unemployment should hold at 6.5%. A softer outcome would underline the Bank of Canada’s view that spare capacity remains in the labour market.
Speakers: Fed's Barkin